First, if you’re looking for an excellent book to devour before proceeding with this Substack, or with just about anything in this post-post-modern life, I humbly suggest the following:
Unfortunately, as you probably already know, we inhabit the 21st century. Not even the early 21st century (as I remember less and less, thanks to drinking too much during my early university years), but we’re already in the third decade of this century – this millennium. Everything means nothing and nothing means everything. Politics is communications and optics. My team can beat your team because we say pretty things, or conversely, we make ourselves a small target and let our opponents bloviate on and on. This is how I win elections, and I’m terrifyingly good at it.
The Promise
As I write this, my boss in Canada, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, was credited by Bloomberg for diversifying the Canadian economy greater than no previous prime minister (paywalled) – an utterly astounding feat considering Canada’s economic performance just a few decades ago, not to mention just a few years ago before he became the Prime Minister of Canada. My boss in Switzerland, Bundespräsident Alain Berset, just announced his retirement from politics effective at the end of 2023.
I’ve worked with Prime Minister Trudeau as a political, policy, and electoral advisor/strategist since his early years as a backbench opposition MP, all the way through his leadership campaign of the Liberal Party of Canada, and his subsequent election victories in 2015, 2019, and 2021. For Bundespräsident Berset, I’ve worked as his special political advisor throughout his tenure on the Swiss Federal Council and managed his successful elections over the past twelve years. I also remain devoted to our political party – the Social Democratic Party of Switzerland – at the federal, cantonal (Genève), and municipal (Ville de Genève) levels.
To borrow a phrase: both men were just ready. And it made my job a lot easier. Both leaders were popular (and remain so), and both leaders spearheaded massive popular changes in their respective countries – admittedly, not without some controversy. Then again, fortune favours the bold, and politics isn’t for wimps and whiners.
The Peril
Trudeaumania 2.0. ending as quickly as it began. Trump. Climate change. A global pandemic and the challenging economic recovery. Illegal protests and occupation in the streets of Ottawa. Death threats too numerous to catalog. A (sometimes) hostile media environment. Genocidal war in Ukraine by Russia. Foreign interference from multiple state actors. And a weak, wimpy, and whiny opposition making life more difficult for Canadians than it should ever be.
For Berset, his attempt at a private life led to media-driven scandals and politically-motivated legal investigations, but he was able to soar above it all. (Niche joke.) He fronted the daily coronavirus briefings and was a calm, reassuring presence for over two years. With that came legal challenges and protests from anti-vaccine crowds wearing cowbells (don’t ask me to explain), and natural missteps in his signature overhaul of pensions and in attempting to keep health insurance costs as low as possible. He was a true champion of Swiss art, music, film, television, and culture. Eight million Swiss are richer after his tenure in office, now coming to an end.
The Future
Even with a minority government in Canada, a cooperation agreement with a fellow centre-left political party will almost certainly ensure Trudeau remains the head of government through the autumn of 2025. He commands a strong and united caucus of MPs that represent all language groups, Canada’s multicultural character, and come to Ottawa from virtually every region, province, and territory. He’s the dean of the Group of Seven Nations (G7), a committed ally within NATO and among Canada’s major non-NATO allies, a true friend of Ukraine and the rules-based order, and a senior global statesman at the young age of fifty-one.
All things being equal, he has the advantages of incumbency and experience, and remains the objective favourite to remain in power after the next general election, currently scheduled to take place by autumn of 2025. His boyish good looks don’t hurt either with our target demographic: educated and hard-working Canadians from coast to coast to coast.
Seeing Like a State
Canada is not a country fond of personality and image over substance and policy. Voters and citizens aren’t stupid. Instead of hashtags and slogans, YouTube highlight reels for the far-right, insults and character assassinations, Canadians want policy details, budget analyses, platform costings, and the rule of law. We are a gimmick-free zone. No bullshit from the leaders of our hockey-loving country is ever tolerated. We also want progressive change, progress on climate change, a net-zero economy, multiculturalism instead of nationalism, truth and reconciliation, equality, equity, and respect for la langue française. Pour toujours.
Justin Trudeau isn’t who we are as Canadians, which can often lead to division, resentment, and disappointment. He’s the (very human and very fallible) leader we all wish we could be, whether we admit it or not. And we only have him for a few more years. After politics, he’s got a bright future ahead, a future we will gladly share with the world.
And maybe – just maybe – it wouldn’t hurt for the Habs to win their 25th Stanley Cup. Save that for his last year in office, whenever that will be.
